scorpion-strategy

? SCORPION v2.0 — Altcoin Swarm Hunter

The swarm forms. Scorpion picks the weakest prey.

The Thesis

When SM goes risk-off, altcoins dump in a correlated swarm. The top traders on Hyperliquid make their biggest returns not on BTC/ETH, but on altcoin SHORTs: LIT, TAO, MON, FARTCOIN, VVV, ZRO, CC.

On April 3, 2026, trader 0x039c was up 99.8% in 4 hours with 33 positions. Biggest winners were all altcoin SHORTs: LIT +$11.6K, FARTCOIN +$6.3K, TAO +$4.9K. The same day, the SM leaderboard showed 7+ altcoins simultaneously at >2% SM SHORT concentration — a clear coordinated swarm.

No current agent detects this pattern. Our agents evaluate assets individually. Scorpion detects the meta-pattern first — then picks the best target.

The Data Advantage

Signal	What it means	Who uses it
SM concentration on BTC	Smart money is trading BTC	Grizzly, Cobra
SM concentration on HYPE	Smart money is trading HYPE	Cheetah
SM concentration on ETH	Smart money is trading ETH	Polar
5+ altcoins all SM SHORT	Coordinated risk-off event	Only Scorpion

⛔ CRITICAL AGENT RULES

RULE 1: Install path is /data/workspace/skills/scorpion-strategy/

RULE 2: THE SCANNER DOES NOT EXIT POSITIONS — DSL only.

RULE 3: MAX 1 POSITION at a time.

RULE 4: MAX 3 ENTRIES PER DAY. 90-minute cooldown. 120-minute per-asset cooldown.

RULE 5: Must detect swarm (5+ altcoins) BEFORE evaluating individual targets.

RULE 6: XYZ equities are BANNED from trading.

RULE 7: Major assets (BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE) are EXCLUDED — those are Cobra's territory.

RULE 8: USE FEE_OPTIMIZED_LIMIT for all entries.

Scanner Logic (1 API call)

1. leaderboard_get_markets (limit=100)

STEP 1 — SWARM DETECTION:
   → Count non-major, non-XYZ altcoins with SM >2% in each direction
   → If SHORT count >= 5: SHORT swarm confirmed
   → If LONG count >= 5: LONG swarm confirmed
   → If neither: NO TRADE (no coordinated event)

STEP 2 — TARGET SELECTION (only if swarm confirmed):
   → Score each altcoin in the swarm:
     - Swarm Size: >=7 = +2, >=5 = +1
     - SM Concentration: >10% = +2, >5% = +1
     - Price Confirmation: >1% in direction = +2, >0.5% = +1
     - Trader Count: >=50 = +1
     - Contribution Velocity: >3% = +1

   MIN_SCORE: 5/8

   → Pick highest-scoring target
   → ENTER with $350 margin, 5x leverage, FEE_OPTIMIZED_LIMIT

DSL Configuration (Altcoin-Optimized)

Altcoins are more volatile than majors. They need wider stops and more time.

Phase 1 (Loss Protection):

• Max loss: -20% (wider than Cobra's -15% — alts bounce harder)
• Retrace from high water: 10% (alts retrace 5-8% before continuing)
• 3 consecutive breaches required
• Phase 1 max time: 45 minutes

Phase 2 (Profit Locking — let altcoin trends develop):

• +5% → lock 20% (very loose — let it run)
• +10% → lock 40%
• +15% → lock 55%
• +20% → lock 70%
• +30% → lock 82%
• +50% → lock 90% (huge winners get maximum room)

Timeouts:

• Hard timeout: 240 minutes (4 hours — altcoin moves are slower to develop)
• Weak peak cut: 90 minutes at +3% minimum
• Dead weight cut: 45 minutes

Why This Works

1. Pattern detection > single-asset detection. When 7 altcoins simultaneously attract SM SHORT concentration, something systemic is happening. Individual signals might be noise. Correlated signals are conviction.

2. Untapped altcoin alpha. No other Predator agent trades LIT, TAO, MON, FARTCOIN, VVV, ZRO, or CC. These are the assets generating the most SM PnL right now. We're leaving the highest-ROE trades on the table.

3. Higher move magnitude. BTC moves 0.2% in 4 hours. LIT moves 3.1%. At the same leverage, the altcoin trade has 15x the ROE impact.

4. Complementary to Cobra. Cobra trades the #1 SM asset (usually a major). Scorpion trades the #1 altcoin within a confirmed swarm. They never overlap.

ROE Math

$350 margin × 5x leverage = $1,750 notional position LIT drops 3% (today's actual move): $1,750 × 0.03 = $52.50 profit $52.50 / $1,000 account = 5.25% ROE per trade

With 3 entries/day over 5 remaining Arena days = 15 potential trades. Need 4 winners at 5%+ each = +20% weekly ROE with room for losers.

Runtime Setup

sed -i 's/${WALLET_ADDRESS}/<WALLET>/' /data/workspace/skills/scorpion-strategy/runtime.yaml
sed -i 's/${TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID}/<CHAT_ID>/' /data/workspace/skills/scorpion-strategy/runtime.yaml
openclaw senpi runtime create --path /data/workspace/skills/scorpion-strategy/runtime.yaml
openclaw senpi runtime list && openclaw senpi status

Bootstrap Gate

Verify runtime + status + scanner cron (90s, main). CRITICAL: The cron must be configured to call create_position via Senpi MCP when the scanner outputs a signal with an entry block. Send: "? SCORPION v2.0 online. Swarm hunter. Watching for coordinated altcoin risk-off."

License

MIT — Built by Senpi (https://senpi.ai).